If I had to choose between Carnac and the economists working for politicians for accuracy in predictions, I think I would have to choose Carnac. Here, via Angry Bear (I think), is Bush’s budget including its predictions for the next 10 years when it was made. Key quotes……..
“It will retire nearly $1 trillion in debt
over the next four years. This will be the
largest debt reduction ever achieved by any
nation at any time. It achieves the maximum
amount of debt reduction possible without
payment of wasteful premiums. It will reduce
the indebtedness of the United States, relative
to our national income, to the lowest level
since early in the 20th Century and to
the lowest level of any of the largest industrial
economies……….
Debt Reduction: Achieves historic levels of debt reduction, retiring the maximum
amount of debt possible over 10 years ($2 trillion).
Tax Relief: Lets taxpayers keep roughly one-fourth of the surplus they produced
($1.6 trillion over 10 years).
By the Numbers:
• Allocates projected $5.6 trillion surplus over 10 years. Breakdown of surplus:
—Saves all of Social Security surplus ($2.6 trillion) for Social Security.
—Provides $1.6 trillion in tax relief over 10 years.
—Creates an unprecedented $1.4 trillion reserve for additional needs, debt
service, and contingencies.
• Produces a $231 billion total surplus in 2002.
• Reduces historically high income tax burden.
• Moderates recent explosive growth in discretionary spending to 4.0 percent
growth in 2002, an increase of $26 billion over 2001.
• Moderates growth in spending by making reductions in one-time spending,
unjustified programs, duplicative programs, and programs that have com-
pleted their mission in 2002.”
It really is the dismal science.
